Here we are again, searching
through the 40-strong Grand National field to find that one runner who will win
the world’s most famous horse race and put horse racing on the front page of
the Sunday papers.
We’ve been applying statistics
and racing smarts in our attempt to unearth the winner of the race where you
need luck as much as anything else. To make
it even more of a challenge, the going looks set to be heavy (soft in places)
this year with further showers forecast to keep it that way. Stamina is not an optional extra!
As ever, I’ll begin by weeding
out a good number of the runners using some trusty trends:
Aged between 8 and
12 (past 62 years)
Carrying between
10-6 and 11-6
These first two stats have struck 12 off the list
including Anibale Fly and Blaklion both out
Official rating of
136+ (and preferably 143+)
This has no effect as any falling into this range are already
off our list!
Has run in at
least 10 chases
Total Recall departs our list at this point along with
Seeyouatmidnight and a handful of others
Has won a chase of
3 miles or more
Has achieved its
best RPR in a chase of 3 miles or more
We are now down to
half the field – 20 runners, having lost none of any great significance in that
last round
Has run between 3
and 6 times since August
This stat will probably
take on greater significance with the stamina sapping going favouring a horse
who hasn’t been overexposed in recent weeks and months. The winner is going to need reserves of
energy for that final run in. On the
other hand, the preferred age of our winner means that he’ll need more than one
recent run to get to prime fitness for this – a balancing act!
We now have a lucky 13 to take a closer look at:
Buywise is perfectly happy on heavy ground but
not at these long grinding distances when the jumping errors start to creep in. He came 12th here in this race 2
years ago and the trainer says he’ll be pleased just to see him get round in
one piece
Carlingford
Lough is an Irish
raider so will have no problems on the rain-soaked ground. He hasn’t shown much
this season though with some dodgy jumping and 2 out of 4 non-completions. Stamina isn’t guaranteed for this distance.
Chase The Spud won the Midlands
National (4m 1½ f) last year and was still staying on at the end (soft going). He has won on heavy but was been pulled up
the last twice following two consecutive wins.
The trainer’s recent and course form doesn’t inspire huge faith but if
this runner rediscovers his form then he could be a big priced each way chance
Final Nudge was last seen out
at Cheltenham Festival where he ran out of steam in the Kim Muir chase. He isn’t a forlorn hope though judging from
his Welsh National performance (3rd) and is unexposed at these long distances
so it could just be that he’s an ‘Aintree horse’ who didn’t take to Cheltenham.
Potential at an each way price
Gas Line Boy is most definitely
an Aintree horse, having won here in December and shown up well in the 2017
running of this race (he was hampered on
more than one occasion which did for his chances). He is fine on heavy ground and thought his
jumping can be erratic, the stable is in good form and he has had a quieter
preparation this year to leave him with more in the tank …..but I can’t help
thinking his best chance may have been last year.
Houblon Des
Obeaux Venetia
Williams knows how to win a Grand National (2009
Mon Mome) and although this runner has performed will on soft and heavy
ground and over longer distances, he hasn’t when both are combined! Not in my top 6
I Just Know Sue Smith is another lady who
knows what it takes to win a Grand National (Auroras
Encore 2013) and it looks like she has another contender lining up tomorrow
with I Just Know. Although young, he can
stay and is an excellent. He has only
one style of running – at the front - and although this will keep him out of
trouble, it will need a heart of oak for him to stay there – he could do it though!
Milansbar just might be the
horse that carries the first winning female jockey to victory in this race. He is one of the older wiser runners lining
up who likes to go to the front. His
second in the Midlands National this year confirms his stamina and dispels any
ground concerns. He carries just 10-6
which will be a big help if he gets to the last 2 furlongs but has had a busy
season and I would be worried that four 3m5f+ races since Christmas may leave
his reserves depleted despite the low weight.
If I’m wrong however (and the stable
has been quiet lately) then he has as good a chance as any favourite.
Perfect Candidate fits all the
stats so gets a mention. Regular partner Paddy Brennan is on Chase The Spud
today – ‘nuff said!
Regal Encore * Might decide he
wants to win or he might decide he’d rather be tucked up in his stable! He has the ability to play a big part here
and on is on the same mark as last year when he stayed on to take 8th. Richie McLernon seems to get on well with his
though and if he’s ridden closer to the pace this year and stays interested
then he has a chance – he isn’t too exposed either.
* NR vets Certificate (Blood Analysis Not Normal)
* NR vets Certificate (Blood Analysis Not Normal)
Tiger Roll is all about
stamina and is as game as they come. Davy
Russell takes the ride for Gordon Elliott and classy as he is, he doesn’t do especially
well here. I have the feeling that Tiger
Roll may be a ‘Cheltenham horse’ having won at 3 festivals and would prefer
better ground.
Vieux Lion Rouge is a name to give
me déjà vu, having appeared in the last two runnings. However, he hasn’t been anywhere near the
form that he was in his form in the previous seasons has far outshone this years
and he just doesn’t look the force of old.
I can’t see him lasting the distance this year.
Warriors Tale is a clever jumper
who trainer Paul Nicholls says might need better ground to get this trip. He is young enough to still be improving though
and if the going isn’t as bad as forecast then this one could outrun his
odds. If not this year then look for him
in 20191
Final Bets Shortlist
·
I JUST KNOW
·
REGAL ENCORE NR
·
FINAL NUDGE
·
MILANSBAR
·
CHASE THE SPUD
·
GAS LINE BOY
·
Paddy Power & BetVictor are paying 6 places
·
Betfair,
bet365, BoyleSports, Coral, Ladbrokes & William Hill are paying 5 places
Good luck with whatever you choose and may all runners and rider return
home safe and sound.
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